Nema mira dok postsovjetske države Ukrajina, Gruzija i Moldavija ne uđu u savez

 
 
Mnogi istočni Europljani sumnjaju u to da bi ih Nato u slučaju napada obranio. Zato inzistiraju na stacioniranju multinacionalnih jedinica. Najvažnije odluke Natova samita koji će se u petak i subotu održati u Varšavi već su donesene: od 2017. u Poljskoj i trima baltičkim državama bit će stacionirani multinacionalni bataljuni. Oko tisuću vojnika trebalo bi rotirati. To znači da bi im nakon šest do devet mjeseci trebala stići zamjena. U Poljskoj će zapovjedništvo preuzeti Amerikanci, u Litvi Nijemci, u Letoniji Kanađani, a u Estoniji Britanci. Osim toga, SAD planira na istočnom boku Saveza stacionirati naoružanje za jednu brigadu koje bi u slučaju konflikta odmah bilo spremno za uporabu.
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
S gledišta istočnoeuropskih članica Natoa to je prvi uspjeh. Naime, kada su ukazivali na opasnost s istoka i tražili jaču zaštitu, mnogi su ih –i to ne samo Rusija, već i članice saveza – kritizirali da su pretjerano osjetljive, rusofobne i okrenute prošlosti. Tek su Natova prijetnja iz jeseni 2014. („Ruske postrojbe mogu u roku od dva dana biti u Rigi, Talinu ili Varšavi.“) i brojne vojne vježbe na istočnoj granici Natoa u kojima bi nekad sudjelovalo i više od 100.000 vojnika jasno pokazale da u tom pitanju Nato ima problem. Ako Rusija, čiji borbeni zrakoplovi svako toliko krše zračni prostor nad Estonijom, napadnu tu malu zemlju „zelenim čovječuljcima“ jednako kao u slučaju Ukrajine, to bi aktiviralo čl. 5. Sjevernoatlantskog ugovora. No do trenutka kada bi naoružanje Saveza bilo spremno za uporabu, vjerojatno bi za obranu Estonije bilo prekasno. „Rusija bi mogla brže osvojiti baltičke zemlje nego što bismo mi mogli doći tamo da ih obranimo“, upozorio je general Ben Hodges, jedan od američkih vojnih zapovjednika u Europi.
 
Putinova prijetnja podudara se s procjenom generala Hodgesa i drugih vojnih stručnjaka: ruske postrojbe mogle bi u roku od 36 do 60 sati osvojiti baltičke glavne gradove. A ako Nato ne obrani svoju najslabiju članicu, to bi ga moglo razoriti iznutra. Četiri bataljuna s ukupno 4.000 vojnika ubuduće će biti pojačanje malim vojskama baltičkih republika – estonskoj s 5.700 vojnika, letonskoj s 5.300 vojnika i litvanskoj s 11.800 vojnika, ali i poljskoj vojsci s oko 100.000 vojnika. Ali nitko u Poljskoj ni u baltičkim zemljama ne smatra da se to može nazvati „zastrašivanjem“ prema Rusiji čija vojska broji 845.000 vojnika.
 
Istočnoeuropske zemlje, a posebno Poljska, traže mnogo više: stalne vojne baze drugih članica Natoa uzduž čitave Natove istočne granice pa čak i odustanak od Temeljnog akta Nato-Rusija. „Kremlj stalno krši te dogovore i u velikoj mjeri krši suverenitet Gruzije i Ukrajine“, tako glasi njihov argument. Zapadne članice Natoa, a posebno Njemačka, na samitu u Walesu održanom prije dvije godine, inzistirale su na bezuvjetnom poštivanju Temeljnog akta, pa čak i ako ga Rusija krši, i time odbile poljske zahtjeve.
 
Međutim, sve izraženije strahove u baltičkim zemljama od hibridnog rata s istoka više ne mogu ignorirati ni ostale članice Natoa. Mnogi Poljaci izražavaju sumnju u to da bi im u slučaju napada Nato pritekao u pomoć. Na samitu bi se trebalo jasno poručiti: Ako u budućnosti jedan ili više multinacionalnih bataljuna bude napadnut, ne će se morati na dugo i naširoko raspravljati o tome tko će, kako i u kojem roku priskočiti u pomoć. Odgovor će biti jasan: svi i odmah. I postsovjetske zemlje Ukrajina, Gruzija i Moldavija nadaju se jednog dana pristupiti Sjevernoatlantskom savezu. Kao suverene zemlje one imaju pravo podnijeti zahtjev za članstvo. No trenutno su njihovi izgledi za pristup mali. I u ovom pitanju iskustva iz hladnog rata igraju bitnu ulogu: Nitko u Natou ne želi bez potrebe provocirati euroazijsku velesilu Rusiju.
 

Gabriele Lesser, Die Tageszeitung, Njemačka